Decision journal · RDDT — Reddit
Opened 50 days ago and still held. No engine recommendations are logged on this name yet. It stands down −$2,229 (−17.3%) with the stop at $139.80.
Unrealized
−$2,229 (−17.3%)
Realized
$0
Weight · held
5.7% · 50d
Engine followed
—
assembled from the book, the realized-outcome ledger, the decision ledger, the event feed, and the thesis — one connected record, graded nightly
Every call on this timeline is graded against a later mark — pending until reality answers.
All decisions →Opened 76 @ 170.00
Social platform on the ad cycle, with data-licensing optionality.
U.S.-Iran peace deal signed; Strait of Hormuz reopening
Risk assets rallied and crude fell as the Hormuz reopening eased the oil supply premium. Equity-beta names led the book; the energy hedge lagged on oil moving down.
Assembled from the connected record — the book, the realized-outcome ledger, the decision journal, the event feed, and the thesis. Grades stay pending until a later mark exists; nothing here is a recommendation. Not investment advice.
FOMC holds at 3.50-3.75%; dot plot turns hawkish, hike odds rising
Median 2026 dot moved to ~3.8% from 3.4%; markets now price a possible hike by October and ~80% odds of zero cuts in 2026. Headwind for long-duration and high-multiple growth.
Fed pivots hawkish: BofA now sees three 2026 hikes to 4.25 to 4.50 percent
Bank of America reversed its hold call and now expects 25bp hikes in September, October, and December 2026, targeting a 4.25 to 4.50 percent funds rate, after Chair Warsh's hawkish June 17 FOMC and a May CPI of 4.2 percent, the hottest since April 2023. CME FedWatch prices September near 73 percent, October near 81 percent, and December near 88 percent; Deutsche sees two hikes, JPMorgan a hold, Goldman pushed cuts to 2027. This is the single biggest structural shift for the book: higher real yields compress high-multiple and long-duration valuations most. Growth and spec names like RDDT and SOUN carry the largest compression risk, PYPL is rate-sensitive, and the TSM January 2027 LEAPS thesis must be re-stress-tested against a 4.25 to 4.50 percent rate by Q4.
Warsh on record: no comfort above 2 percent; markets price a 70 percent September hike
Chair Warsh, verbatim and confirmed across Reuters, CNBC, PBS, and AP: "If there were people... who thought that this central bank was going to be comfortable with an inflation objective above 2%, well, I guess they'd be disappointed." Core PCE is 3.4 percent (May), headline 4.1 percent. With funds near 3.6 percent, markets now price roughly 70 percent odds of a hike to about 3.9 percent at the September 15 to 16 meeting; the next FOMC is July 28. This upgrades the hawkish posture logged July 1 from interpretation to a market-priced probability: rate-cut base cases in any discount-rate assumption are pulled, and compression risk stays concentrated in high-multiple, long-duration names.
Held: 76 @ 140.67
Thesis breaks if: The ad market rolls over.
ETOR
NTES
HALO
WM
PLMR
XLE
TSM
KGC
MCD
PYPL
SOUN
CME
IMAX
CPRT
INFQ