Put intelligence · Marauri study
Live· as of 2026-08-03 13:58:20The engine's best downside contract is the 735 strike expiring 2026-09-18 (46 days out) — a put profits if SPY falls far enough past its strike before expiry. Highest expected value under the scenario view: +178.2% probability-weighted, break-even at SPY 726.23, a 3.59% move. 17,439 OI keeps the exit liquid.
SPY now
$753.31 (+0.9%)
Board expiry
2026-09-18 · 46d
Ranked by
expected value
Ranked by Each put's average payoff across the listed what-if scenarios, weighted by how likely each scenario is judged to be. It prices the whole distribution, not just one hoped-for outcome. — not by delta, and not by how dramatic the hedge feels.
Live CBOE chain, ~15 min delayed · scenario probabilities are a stated macro view, not a measurement — the ledger below grades the view · recommendations frozen daily at 9:35 AM ET · paper-trade study, not advice
Paper only — size it through the after-tax gate on the options lab before anything else.
Options lab →Engine recommendation
$735 put
Mark
$8.77
Expected value
+178.2%
Break-even
$726.23 SPY -3.6%
Highest expected value under the scenario view: +178.2% probability-weighted, break-even at SPY 726.23, a 3.59% move. 17,439 OI keeps the exit liquid.
Nasdaq 30-day downside vol is 1.65x VIX (crowded, vs a 1.15-1.25 norm): the tech-led downside the tape is expressing lives in QQQ/NDX, which this SPY board does not cover — and an outright Nasdaq put is paying up for that crowding. On SPY, a third of the index (energy, financials, staples) hedges the same drawdown, so a SPY put is the cheaper but less expressive instrument; the spread board mitigates the vol premium on either index.
| # | Strike | Mark | EV | Score | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $735 2.4% OTM | $8.77 | +178.2% | 99 | -0.319 |
| 2 | $730 3.1% OTM | $7.72 | +166.0% | 98 | -0.283 |
| 3 | $720 4.4% OTM | $6.04 | +112.6% | 95 | -0.223 |
| 4 | $725 3.8% OTM | $6.82 | +144.7% | 95 | -0.251 |
| 5 | $740 1.8% OTM | $9.99 | +182.8% | 93 | -0.360 |
| 6 | $750 0.4% OTM | $13.05 | +180.9% | 90 | -0.456 |
| 7 | $745 1.1% OTM | $11.39 | +184.5% | 83 | -0.406 |
| 8 | $742 1.5% OTM | $10.52 | +183.9% | 77 | -0.378 |
| 9 | $726 3.6% OTM | $7.00 | +149.7% | 77 | -0.257 |
| 10 | $737 2.2% OTM | $9.23 | +181.0% | 77 | -0.335 |
| 11 | $738 2.0% OTM | $9.47 | +182.0% | 76 | -0.343 |
| 12 | $760 -0.9% OTM | $17.29 | +161.2% | 72 | -0.571 |
| 13 | $746 1.0% OTM | $11.71 | +184.2% | 71 | -0.415 |
| 14 | $755 -0.2% OTM | $15.00 | +172.9% | 71 | -0.512 |
| 15 | $747 0.8% OTM | $12.03 | +183.7% | 71 | -0.425 |
| 16 | $765 -1.6% OTM | $19.93 | +151.7% | 65 | -0.634 |
How the put engine grades itself
Recorded
26
Matured
0
Graded
0 of 10
Measuring — no aggregate speaks below 10 graded outcomes, and nothing about how the view is formed changes until the realized ledger earns it.
Recommendations frozen daily at 9:35 AM ET, first-write-wins · graded at expiry against SPY session closes, mid-to-intrinsic — no fills, no early exits, no vol path · the +50/−25 exit discipline is not gradable on free data
