At $5,200,000 you are paying above the defensible range of $4,600,000–$5,000,000. You are overpaying by roughly 6.6% versus the central estimate.
central $4.88M
asking $5.20M
$4.60Mdefensible range$5.00M
Assumptions you control
Asking price
$5.20M
FCF growth
6.0%
Terminal growth
2.5%
Discounted cash flowleaned onForecastable cash flows — DCF is the anchor.$4.96M
Public comparablesleaned onComparable public set exists; private-company discount applied.$4.60M
Precedent transactionsNo precedent transactions to draw a multiple from.—
Capitalized earningsleaned onSmall profitable operating business — capitalized earnings / SDE is the workhorse.$5.00M
Revenue multipleMature, profitable, low-growth — a revenue multiple ignores margins and would be confidently wrong. Earnings methods used instead.—
Asset-based (floor)floorAsset-based value as the floor, not the going-concern estimate.$1.50M
Example scenario — every assumption above is editable, and the multiples are illustrative placeholders (which is why confidence is capped). Sensitivity, scenario, and driver attribution will appear here as Layer 5 ships. Not investment advice.
